As I suggested in earlier posts, even with a strike rate of 90%, systems like LayTrigger will NEVER make long term profit if laying regularly above the break even point which for a 90% strike rate is a lay price of 9.55.

From your records: “The average price of a selection was 10.34″ and “The average price of our losing lay trades was 11.23″.

If a laying system does not work to level stakes, then the risk factor too often bites you! The only lay systems I know of that are profitable because their average lay price is consistently shorter than the break even price is Fancy Fillies and Little Acorns.

LayTrigger lost over a point per day or 0.5 points per day if using limited liability.

Just another joke system.

Jon

Can you post the Betfair prices of yesterday’s selections (Dec 13) as I am keen to monitor these.

Thanks
Jon

Jon

All the selections for yesterday were well above the break even price which is 9.55 for a 90% strike rate.

Another over hyped system that cannot succeed.

Jon

To date, from 43 bets only 24 have been recorded at 9.5 or shorter. Interestingly, if you ignore selections priced longer than 9.5, the net gain is 4.7 points as opposed to the recorded gain of 12.3 points.

The point here is that the strike rate is important to take into account if you use level stakes to appraise the system. At the moment, the system is outperforming the advertised strike rate at 93%.

Just a thought

Jon

Thanks for that Marc – he doesn’t actually give the names. Soren has now said what OBE is. I didn’t want to in case I upset anyone.

You do seem to get a slight difference, but both showing a profit in the short time to date. Was just curious to know if there was a “human factor” I’m sure Craig would be happy to compare notes with you, but maybe not necessary.

I will watch the test with interest, wait for a positive result and a complimentary copy of the excel bot! Keep up the good work.

Cheers

Fernie

I am not familiar with “OBE”……Is Craig actually publishing the horses that are included in his selections……?

I have all my selections stored with physical evidence on why it was a selection. So I am more than happy to compare notes.

To answer your question……Yes, for a “Human” it can get a little subjective at the time the selection is made and I am sure two humans could well come up with different selections. However, not that I want to say that my process is better than Craig’s, but it is just that I have my own “Excel Robot” which evaluates the selections. The LayTrigger selection process is very mathematical and I felt that the only way that I could accurately represent the system was to use some automation.

Hi Marc, thanks for your hard work on this one – I have noticed that Craig from OBE is currently running the same system test but he gets different numbers to you.

Does that mean it is easy to get different selections?

Cheers

Fernie

Let’s cross our fingers that we don’t see any big losers before the bank has been built up.

Steve=> I don’t have time at the moment. Christmas is stressing me since there is a lot of things to be finalized (paper work) in my other internet companies.