Nov
27
The new Horse Laying System that we are going to test is called “The LayTriGGer”.
Laytrigger has been on the market for some time and has been producing very good results.
We are now going to see how it performs over a period of time.
The GOOD news is that this is a very straight forward horse laying system which only requires access to BetFair.
It revolves around laying one horse in horse races which meet a certain criteria. The horse is selected via SIX easy to follow filters.
The BAD news is that the last two filters can only be applied seconds before the race is due to start. In this day of automated betting, there are robots out there which could assist you in placing your bets. The one that is recommended by the author is Marketfeederpro whose details can be found at www.marketfeederpro.com .
The author boasts that over the four and a half years that this system has been in operation, the system has enjoyed a success rate of 91% and profits of £164040 with £100 stakes (at betfair prices). This sounds very impressive until of course you make the observation that the price of a selected horse that you could lay can be anything up to 19.7. However, hopefully on average it will be closer to 8.0.
Anyway, the purpose of this exercise is to see whether, over a period of time, the very high success rate can overcome the occasional high loss.
Although the author suggests a rather complex staking system, for the purpose of this exercise, we will lay each selected horse with a level stake of 1 point.
All winning bets will be subject to a 5% commission charge.
On a nightly basis I will post the day’s results for Laytrigger.
Although I will not specifically name the horse and race, I will indicate the price at which the lay was placed and the result of the bet.
System tester for this system is: Marc
Read more about Laytrigger here
Results for the live test of Laytrigger:
As I mentioned above, the horse to lay in a particular race can change in the last few seconds of pre-race trading so the selection process can be rather subjective.
The horse that I select could well be different to the horse that someone else may select, depending at what time prior to the start of a race a person starts the selection process.
RESULTS:
Dec 1st
5 Horses met the selection criteria.
ALL 5 LOST. BetFair Odds were 12.0 9.2 7.4 9.2 10.5
So an impressive start with +4.75 Points.
But as you can see, at these kind of prices we need a very high strike rate.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: +4.75 points (1 point can be anything you wish to bet)
Dec 2nd
6 Horses met the selection criteria.
ALL 6 LOST. BetFair Odds were: 9.2 9.6 10.5 12.5 12.0 9.0
+5.7 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: (To Date) +10.45 Points.
Dec 3rd
5 Selections Today.
Odds of 5.8 11.0 9.2 8.6 8.4
4 Horses LOST 1 Horse WON at odds of 9.2
-4.4 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: (To Date) +6.05 Points.
Dec 4th
4 Selections Today.
Odds of 9.4 7.6 10.5 7.8
All 4 Horses LOST.
+3.8 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: (To Date) +9.85 Points.
Dec 5th
3 Selections Today.
Odds of 11.5 9.4 10.5
All 3 Horses LOST.
+2.85 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: (To Date) +12.7 Points.
Dec 6th
8 Selections Today.
Odds of 12.5 12.0 10.5 9.4 11.5 10.5 6.6 10.5
ALL 8 Horses LOST.
+7.6 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: (To Date) +20.3 Points.
Dec 7th
NO Selections Today.
Dec 8th
5 Selections Today.
Odds of 11.5 8.4 9.0 10.5 9.0
3 Horses LOST 2 Horses WON at odds of 10.5 and 9.0
Some “Sanity” at last. (We have TWO losing trades).
-14.65 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: (To Date) +5.65 Points.
Just for comparison purposes. If you had layed each of the selections with a LIABILTY of 10 Points then currently you would be looking at a profit of +7.04 Points.
Dec 9th
Back on our winning ways.
7 Selections Today.
Odds of 7.2 9.8 8.2 9.0 8.6 11.5 10.5
ALL 7 Horses LOST.
+6.65 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +12.3 Points.
Dec 10th
1 Selection Today.
Odds of 9.4
This 1 Horse LOST.
+0.95 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +13.25 Points.
Dec 11th
1 Selection Today.
Odds of 9.4
This 1 Horse WON.
-8.4 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +4.85 Points.
Dec 12th
4 Selections Today.
Odds of 16.5 12.0 14.0 11.0
2 Horses LOST. 2 Horses WON at odds of 12.0 and 14.0
The two races where the selection won were Wolverhampton 18:20 and Doncaster 12:00. Anyone who uses the system would be able to identify these two horses as obvious selections.
-22.10 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS: (To Date) -17.25 Points
Using liability stakes as opposed to level stakes the overall loss to date would be -11.99 Points.
Dec 13th
6 Selections Today.
Odds of 7.6 7.4 11.5 10.0 7.6 9.4
ALL 6 Horses LOST.
+5.70 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): -11.55 Points.
Dec 14th.
4 Selections Today.
Odds of 12.5 11.5 10.5 11.5
ALL 4 Horses LOST.
+3.8 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): -7.75 Points.
Dec 15th.
3 Selections Today.
Odds of 7.2 13.5 9.4
ALL 3 Horses LOST.
+2.85 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): -4.9 Points.
Using a “Fixed Liabilty” Laying Sytem then we are now looking at a +2.52 Points Profit.
Dec 16th.
6 Selections Today.
Odds of 15.5 14.5 8.4 12.5 7.8 11.5.
ALL 6 Horses LOST.
+5.70 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +0.8 Points.
Dec 17th.
6 Selections Today.
Odds of 8.6 15.0 15.0 8.6 15.5 14.0.
ALL 6 Horses LOST.
+5.70 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +6.5 Points.
Dec 18th.
4 Selections Today.
Odds of 7.4 5.9 9.8 13.0.
ALL 4 Horses LOST.
+3.80 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +10.3 Points.
Using “Limited Liabilty” staking method we are now up to +18.83 Points.
This is really annoying me now, since this system should really not be this good……
So BIG warning coming up….I am going to unleash my “Super Duper” automated Lay Trigger system tomorrow (Friday), using REAL money……That should really put the mockers on the system. I will definitely use the “Fixed Liability” staking system. At the end of the day, I have written this software, so I may as well use it……
Dec 19th.
3 Selections Today.
Odds of 7.2 8.2 9.4.
2 Horses LOST. The 9.4 selection WON.
-6.50 Points Today.
The 32 Successful layed horse run comes to an end……
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +3.8 Points.
Dec 20th.
6 Selections Today.
Odds of 18.5 9.6 10.0 14.0 11.5 7.2.
ALL 6 Horses LOST.
+5.70 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +9.5 Points.
Dec 21st.
2 Selections Today.
Odds of 9.8 8.0.
BOTH 2 Horses LOST.
+1.90 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): +11.4 Points.
Dec 22nd.
7 Selections Today.
Odds of 8.6 9.4 12.0 8.2 19.0 9.0 9.2.
5 Horses LOST 2 Horses WON. The 19.0 and 9.0 Selections won.
-21.25 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): -9.85 Points.
Dec 23rd.
4 Selections Today.
Odds of 7.0 8.8 15.0 12.0.
2 Horses LOST 2 Horses WON. The 7.0 and 15.0 Selections won.
-18.10 Points Today.
TOTAL PROFIT / LOSS (To Date): -27.95 Points.
So all our hard work and profits wiped out in the space of two days.
I guess it is time to put this system to “Bed”……
To Summarize:
Over the course of the last 23 days our system found exactly 100 selections.
The average price of a selection was 10.34.
Of the 100 selections, 11 of the selections were LOSING trades for us.
The average price of our losing lay trades was 11.23.
At one stage we had strung 32 winning trades in a row together. Pretty impressive……But the problem with laying horses at these kind of prices, is that it does not take much to wipe out any profits accumulated.
When I first saw the system, I really could not see how a system like this could ever work. Although the system had a great success to begin with, it really was just a matter of time before “The Law Of Averages” caught up with this system.
In theory, this system should just not work and unfortunately this is how it turned out at the end.
There may be something to be said for using a limited liabilty staking system since this only made a 12.21 point loss over the testing period compared to the 27.95 point loss we encountered using a level stakes staking system.
Unless anyone can explain, with logic, how this system could ever work, I really have to recommend that this system is best to avoid.
Welcome to Marc which is one of our new system testers
Very early days for the trial but something does concern me about the results posted so far.
The system sales page claims a 90% strike rate which after accounting for betfair commission, means the break even lay price is 9.55. Yet 7 of the 16 bets so far (44%) are above this price.
Therefore over the long term it is doubtful the system will be profitable.
Can Marc tell us if there is a max lay price recommended by the system?
Jon
Hi Jon,
Yes, I share your concern as well…..I guess time will tell.
As far as the maximum lay price is concerned, the maximum price that is mentioned in the “System Book” is a lay price of 19.7…..I hate to think what strike rate is required if we start getting selections that high……?
I agree the lay prices are very very high and could be very dangerous. Normally I would never lay at these odds but let’s see how it goes maybe I could be convinced to try something new for a change
I suppose another way of laying at high prices would be to use a fixed liability.
Jon
We can try to run the results through the staking machine when test has finished to see if it will make it better…
Hi Admin,
How highly do you rate TSM (The Staking Machine)……?
I like it really much. But I also like to experiment with staking plans hehe
One of the best parts about it is that you can also get some example results for for instance 5000 races if you enter in your strike rate, odds and so on. This way you will most times see that all of the aggresive loss recovery systems does not work (unless you have a very very big bank, and level stakes profits).
It’s not a system,just some good software to play around with if you like to try something else than level stakes.
Can’t you run past results through the staking machine now??
Surely the system authors can provide you with their detailed results. Assuming of course that they use it themselves…
Hi,
I just can’t believe how this “System” is performing so well. I have not traded this system yet with “Real” money but I have foolishly written an “Excel Robot” which will place my bets automatically……I know that, if I was to put the Robot into play, then the system would collapse immediately.
I will warn everyone if/when I decide to do that……
hehe Marc wait a little bit going for real money we don’t want you to destroy the performance.
Let’s cross our fingers that we don’t see any big losers before the bank has been built up.
Steve=> I don’t have time at the moment. Christmas is stressing me since there is a lot of things to be finalized (paper work) in my other internet companies.
@Marc
Hi Marc, thanks for your hard work on this one – I have noticed that Craig from OBE is currently running the same system test but he gets different numbers to you.
Does that mean it is easy to get different selections?
Cheers
Fernie
Hi Fernie,
I am not familiar with “OBE”……Is Craig actually publishing the horses that are included in his selections……?
I have all my selections stored with physical evidence on why it was a selection. So I am more than happy to compare notes.
To answer your question……Yes, for a “Human” it can get a little subjective at the time the selection is made and I am sure two humans could well come up with different selections. However, not that I want to say that my process is better than Craig’s, but it is just that I have my own “Excel Robot” which evaluates the selections. The LayTrigger selection process is very mathematical and I felt that the only way that I could accurately represent the system was to use some automation.
when i look at onlinebettingexposed, and here you dont get the same results, do you know why ?
@ Marc
Thanks for that Marc – he doesn’t actually give the names. Soren has now said what OBE is. I didn’t want to in case I upset anyone.
You do seem to get a slight difference, but both showing a profit in the short time to date. Was just curious to know if there was a “human factor” I’m sure Craig would be happy to compare notes with you, but maybe not necessary.
I will watch the test with interest, wait for a positive result and a complimentary copy of the excel bot!
Keep up the good work.
Cheers
Fernie
In an earlier post (#2) I said that based on the advertised strike rate of 91%, the maximum break even lay price is 9.55.
To date, from 43 bets only 24 have been recorded at 9.5 or shorter. Interestingly, if you ignore selections priced longer than 9.5, the net gain is 4.7 points as opposed to the recorded gain of 12.3 points.
The point here is that the strike rate is important to take into account if you use level stakes to appraise the system. At the moment, the system is outperforming the advertised strike rate at 93%.
Just a thought
Jon
Well, well. So LayTrigger has done what I feared. Laying horses at longer odds than the break even point will simply end in tears.
All the selections for yesterday were well above the break even price which is 9.55 for a 90% strike rate.
Another over hyped system that cannot succeed.
Jon
If selections were limited to a lay price of 9.55, yesterday would have been a no bet day and the cumulative P/L would now be -2.7 points which is acceptable at this stage of the trial.
Jon
Marc
Can you post the Betfair prices of yesterday’s selections (Dec 13) as I am keen to monitor these.
Thanks
Jon
Marc
As I suggested in earlier posts, even with a strike rate of 90%, systems like LayTrigger will NEVER make long term profit if laying regularly above the break even point which for a 90% strike rate is a lay price of 9.55.
From your records: “The average price of a selection was 10.34″ and “The average price of our losing lay trades was 11.23″.
If a laying system does not work to level stakes, then the risk factor too often bites you! The only lay systems I know of that are profitable because their average lay price is consistently shorter than the break even price is Fancy Fillies and Little Acorns.
LayTrigger lost over a point per day or 0.5 points per day if using limited liability.
Just another joke system.
Jon