I don’t actually back many long prices these days, but should one come up I’d be tempted to put a couple of hundred on just to see what the ‘real actual’ return was in comparison.

One thing is for certain, laying at BFSP at those reported odds would be suicidal.
cheers.

Looking at BF’s reply to my query (above) where they have £10 laying liability and £2 backing liability, this gives them a BFSP of 4/1 (5.00). Now just think if you come in before the off with a back bet of £200. This now gives you a return of 00.05, so you’ve adjusted the market down if no one comes in on the laying side so your point of being efficient market stands up.

WAnyone using a backing system for and using BFSP, a value bet could be completely destroyed by a couple of rogue bets like that, especially at the back end of the book.

As I say I don’t use BFSP as I prefer to have some sort of control over returns which is not possible using BFSP, so I’m quite willing to be corrected on this stuff. Interesting non the less.

I know that QOTD is a backing system, but there are quite a few laying systems out there suggesting laying using BFSP. That must be suicidal looking at the published BFSPs and not to be recommended.

I had my reservations about using Betfair SP too until I realised that it comes very close to an efficient market. In theory, if the price is widely out of kilter then people operating purely on a value basis will step in and drive the price back to its correct levels. If you lay a horse for a massive amount which causes the projected BFSP to rise to a ridiculous number then people will want to take the other side and back it! It is helped by huge numbers of maths-savvy types and running bots who are quick to jump on any price that will give them an advantage.

I would love to be able to back and lay with huge sums to see exactly what happens but this is not feasible at the current stage. interesting to think about though…

Regarding QOTD, it’s just acedemic interest really as to how it performs to BFSP, BF back odds at the off and Industry SP. Profitable at all three would certainly mean that you have a system worth looking at. Reliance on BFSP still has me concerned, but if you and others are turning a profit that way, then good luck to you.
best regards.

As you know most punters are part time and not withstanding shift work they are mostly occupied with their day jobs and are unable to monitor markets for price movements. The QOTD method was profitable at industry sp, but even more so at the betfair sp. The added advantage to the users of the method is they can place their bets at anytime prior to the race being run, and over 16 months, the betfair sp have out performed the industry sp. Because it does not take the horse form into account I believe that this is the reason that many of our selections go off at big prices and the profits are further enhanced by the betfair sp’s…..and no one’s account can be closed by the bookies who seem hell bent on restricting anyone who wins consistently. As I mentioned earlier my own income ground to a halt after the majority of my accounts were closed or in the case of W.Hill…..max bet nil!!!! For this reason I have been developing methods via the exchanges and QOTD was a good example of how effective …thinking out of the box can be. Happy punting and I wish you continued success