Mar
27
Quick on the Draw Review
Filed Under Neutral systems | 24 Comments
We are going to have a “Quick” look at the Quick On The Draw Horse Racing Method…… However, the word “Quick” is probably not the most appropriate word here, because it will probably take some time to establish whether Quick on the draw system has any creditability.
Quick on the Draw revolves around backing certain horses which meet a certain criteria. At present the system only focuses on ONE racetrack, so as I said, the number of selections that we will get from the Quick On The Draw system will be few and far between. The good news is that finding the selections takes about one minute and having found them our BACK bets can be placed at any time before the race.
I will now use the authors own notes to describe the system further:
Welcome to a guaranteed winning horse racing method This is a simple and consistent way to find a regular supply of winning horses at BIG prices on UK horse racing.
It is important to note that this is NOT a Get Rich Quick Scheme. Quick on the draw will provide you with a regular and profitable way to develop a second income for those little extra luxuries, as well as having great fun cheering on BIG PRICED WINNERS.
Latest Winners
In the last few weeks
Won @ 8/1
Won @ 12/1
Won @ 12/1
Won @ 14.1
The Method is simplicity itself to use and requires no detailed knowledge of horse racing form.
The selections can be found from any daily newspaper!
Once the qualifying selections are found you simply place a LEVEL STAKE win bet. This bet can be placed any time of day prior to the start of the race.
Quick on the draw consistently picks BIG priced winners and comes complete with the latest 13 months results which can easily be checked and verified to prove the Method a winner!
Quick on the draw uses a simple but little known fact which is statistically proven, combined with a unique betting technique to exploit the MASSIVE prices available on Betfair Exchanges.
Win Bets Only
1.8 Points Profit a Race
Level Stakes 124 races – 228 Points Profit
35% Strike Race
Simple Selection – Any Paper – Bet any Time
124 Races with 44 Winners – Average Winning Price 12/1
Never bet on more than 3 horses in a race
Steve Carter
_____________________________________________
For the purpose of this exercise, I will report our results for quick on the draw based on placing a 1 point stake on each of our selections using a 5% commission on any of our winnings.
If there have been any selections during the day, I will post them here on a daily basis otherwise I will post nothing. But there could be weeks, sometimes, where there will be no action. We will just run this in the background and see how things go.
-Marc
Mar 29th.
Five Star Junior 3.25 (2nd)
Satwa Street 8.65 (3rd)
Gone Hunting 34.48 (7th)
Total So Far: -3 Points.
Apr 1st.
Happy Forever 5.20 (3rd)
Athania 15.67 (4th)
Ray Of Joy 19.22 (1st)
Total So Far: +12.41 Points.
Apr 8th.
Teen Ager 9.63 (6th)
Garstang 14.64 (1st)
Sherjawy 8.23 (5th)
Total So Far: +23.47 Points.
Apr 11th.
Spitfire 18.50 (4th)
Flowing Cape 5.31 (3rd)
Al Muheer 7.03 (7th)
Laudatory 4.05 (1st)
Grand Honour 17.99 (9th)
Proclaim 12.0 (6th)
Total So Far: +21.47 Points.
Apr 15th.
Lord Deevert 11.38 (5th)
Our Blessing 5.84 (4th)
Compton Classic 8.36 (1st)
Total So Far: +26.56 Points.
Apr 17th.
Guildenstern 8.72 (10th)
Bold Argument 26.92 (9th)
Marmooq 5.81 (13th)
Mutamared 6.23 (3rd)
Masai Moon 9.0 (2nd)
Mullein 5.97 (1st)
Total So Far: +26.53 Points.
Apr 21st.
Count Paris 7.73 (4th)
Striding Edge 7.40 (8th)
Bobbie Soxer 7.20 (2nd)
Total So Far: +23.53 Points.
Apr 22nd.
Rockfield Lodge 12.65 (6th)
Compton Classic 5.61 (4th)
Onceaponatime 7.00 (2nd)
Total So Far: +20.53 Points.
June 3rd.
After The Show 8.44 (8th)
Silver Prelude 4.50 (2nd)
Monsieur Reynard 10.50 (5th)
Cativo Cavallino 12.26 (3rd)
Convallaria 6.20 (5th)
Sweet Kiss 19.82 (11th)
Total So Far: +14.53 Points.
June 10th.
Seek The Fair Land 5.9 (4th)
Caledonia Princess 11.91 (6th)
Diddums 7.43 (9th)
Foxtrot Alpha 22.08 (2nd)
One Cool Kitty 15.24 (6th)
Russian Rave 7.4 (1st)
Count Ceprano 28.33 (9th)
Elisiario 7.33 (6th)
Woodcote Place 8.47 (2nd)
Total So Far: +12.71 Points.
June 17th.
Doc Jones 10.66 (10th)
Mac’s Power 7.10 (1st)
Total So Far: +17.56 Points.
June 24th.
Dualagi 8.79 (3rd)
Nobilissima 14.50 (7th)
Midnight Fantasy 3.67 (1st)
For The Day +0.64 Points.
Total So Far: +18.20 Points.
June 25th.
Lujeanie 4.80 (1st)
Equinity 18.60 (10th)
Hillside Lad 4.71 (9th)
For The Day +1.71 Points.
Total So Far: +19.91 Points.
July 8th.
Duke Of Milan 6.09 (2nd)
Global Village 3.55 (1st)
Avoca Dancer (7th)
For The Day +0.52 Points.
Total So Far: +20.43 Points.
July 15th.
The Desert Saint 10.82 (8th)
Intolerable 6.80 (12th)
Foxtrot Alpha 9.20 (14th)
Convallaria 15.98 (11th)
Sun Catcher 33.01 (11th)
Kingsgate Castle (6th)
For The Day -6.00 Points.
Total So Far: +14.43 Points.
Final Summary.
I guess it is time to lay this one to rest……(Through Boredom).
Overall, the concept does work, so for that reason alone it should probably be placed into the Recommended Section.
However, the system revolves around a concept that is found at just ONE racetrack and ONE type of race so the number of selections that it finds are few and far between.
Additionally, the fact that this concept is now so well known, the selections that are found have this concept factored into their starting price.
Another thing that I have found is that this concept is more apparent on certain days/evenings than others. So really you do have to wait to see whether this concept is applicable for the day before you take a chance on a subsequent race. This relies on there being two races of this type during the same race meeting.
Probably the best thing to do is to wait a few months/years for people to forget about this system and then to re-use it at a later date.
Could you tell me over how long time the mentioned 124 bets have been placed?
Hi Kardi,
I have just put it through Adrian Massey and it is telling me that there were 124 races during 2008 that fitted the criteria so I guess the Author is referring to the 2008 year.
On further analysis:
2007 had 103 races.
2006 had 65 races.
2009 so far 18 races.
Looking back through the history, it appears that this kind of race only started on 25th March 2006.
Hope this helps……
Hi Marc
So how does a 19.22 Winner go down. Ray of Joy 19.22 Kempton 8.20
and to boot 1st 3rd and 4th in the same race
I do understand your sceptism but the method continues to surprise me and some
Interesting system, I think from the info above it is actually the converse of one that I currently use for laying. Less risk more reward.
How long do you intend to keep up the trial as there wont be that many runners in a month if my deduction is correct.
Hi Padraig,
Unfortunately there are only SEVEN meetings over the next two months that fit the criteria….So to answer your question…..Probably 10 Years……?
“Clean Sweep” in the Kempton 8:50 (April 17th).
The THREE selections for the race came 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
i back checked the results for last 3 months of 2007. 7 of the 22 races were successful. Prices of the successful horses not that large (draw biased reflected in prices already??)and based on 1 pt win for each horse the result for the 3 months was a 22.5 point loss. This was at SP, Betfair SP would have reduced loss slightly. System had a 77/1 winner in last 13 months (perhaps the reason the author used this time period), which does skew profti and loss significantly
Hi Adam
The real reason for the results starting on Jan 1st 2008 is quite simple……Betfair SP which came into being late Dec’07…..and in my humble opinion 16 months seems to be a fair timespan on which to judge what is a very simple method which continues to surprise me, and we have only positive feedback from our customers.
siddy
The problem with systems like Quick on the Draw and Protege is that if you study the results you’ll see that the real profits come when the big priced winners come in. Examples of 25.00+ up to 44.00+ 0n Betfair bear testiment to that.
However there’s a serious flaw in this. Look at the liquidity at that end of the book. There’s no way that you could get matched at that price and even if you did that would bring the price back in. Advice is to use BFSP, but that is a pool. Stick £100 on a 44.00 shot and you’ll find that you’re probably the only one in the pool anyway so your payout isn’t going to be anywhere near that.
Both of these systems look great with their long Betfair odds. If those odds were at industry SP I’d be more impressed. They’re not. Ergo, neither of these systems can possibly live up to their claims.
Hi Jeff
Interesting comments but and I assume that you are a fulltime pro and therefore will know how betfair sp actually works. It is not a pool and if you would like to check, any backs not covered by an opposite lay punter is actully matched by …..betfair themselves. They are able to do this as even when the bfsp returns a 100% book they actually have the 2-5% commission to fund these markets, hence their constantly reporting the benefits over the bookmakers sp’s.
@siddy,
We learn something everyday!!! I’ve never used BFSP as a betting medium for backing or laying as I was under the impression that it was a pool and therefore subject to the amount of money in it,similar to the way that the Tote works hence the large payouts. If that were the case you’re relinquishing control over your returns, something I’m not happy to do.
My concern was that if you placed a sizable bet at the back end of the book, because you’d probably be the largest contributer to the pool you wouldn’t be getting the large return that you expected, hence why you never know what the BFSP is until the race is over (as I understand that ‘in running’ money also contributes to the pool).
My question (academic) if you know the answer (saving me looking it up) would be, how is the calculation of the BFSP figure arrived at?
Still not something I’d be too happy to participate in because of the unknown factor, but thanks for the heads up.
Hi Jeff
Betfair as you probably know work on margins, ie the commission on winnings. They have the(near) perfect system that their book will always deliver a profit….as they win whatever gg goes past the post…..due to the comms they deduct. The bookies bless them(well based on my experience of having 40+ accounts closed) have to try to balance their books and make a profit, but they only have the option of restricting accounts after the event. The amount of money matched on bfsp is low relative to the amount matched per race so is just a margin improver and good pr for the use of betfair. To give you an example last years Grand National…the winner Comply or die was heavily punted just before the off…..betfair sp was below the bookies sp…so they adjusted it to enhance the return. Customers who laid the winner were allowed to lay at below returned sp, but because it was so big profile betfair excepted the losses albiet small to continue the process of promoting their site.
The QOTD method came about because my fulltime income became affected by the bookies closing my accounts….given my earnings they were a drop compared to what they make….but they do not like anyone with an edge over them, hence my research into betfair usage. Today using a different strategy I managed to bag a 28.98 winner, matched at betfair sp….but would not have been able to get more than a fiver on with the bookies……so I do not make any apolgies. The QOTD method has been on the market for over 4 months…..and has been profitable all that time….if you have an equal or superior method then let me know as I would buy it!!!!
all the best
siddy
@siddy,
Firstly, it’s not a competition between you and I as to who has the best system. I use a variety of systems (usually adjusted and tweaked) and my own methods and also have quite a lot of stuff on file which I’ve analised and decided that either it’s not viable as a method or doesn’t suit my particular betting style. I’ll often buy a system and perhaps just use part of it in conjunction with other stuff, which is why I don’t ever see buying systems as a waste of money as there’s always something to be learnt from other peoples work. I must be honest and say that I’ve never really understood why people sell viable systems instead of just earning quietly from them, as it seems to me a lot of aggravation for little return and in respect of laying can destroy the market in the short term when all of the new purchasers jump on board. So to answer your final point, you won’t ever see any methods used by myself for sale.
I assume from your comments that you are the author of QOTD and would ask if you’ve ever calculated the results to Industry SP and if so does it still show a profit or are the profits wholly dependant on BFSP?
Rather than wade through the deep porridge and waffle that is the Betfair Rules I contacted them yesterday regarding this issue of BFSP and the following is their reply which I hope is of help to anyone interested in using this facility on the exchanges. Personnaly I still think it’s a bit too unpredictable and variable for my liking.
Anyway here’s their answer to my query:
Dear Jeffrey
Thank you for your e-mail.
I can confirm that the basics of the working out of the SP is based on the amount of money available on the ‘SP back’ and ‘SP lay’ side of the market, in much the same way as a track bookmaker works it out.
As a basic example, if we had £10 of layers liability and £2 of backers stake at SP on a selection, we would reason that the horse is 5 times more likely to lose then to win, and thus return a price of 5’s (4/1).
In that respect it is a pool, as the bakers stake and layers liability are pooled together to return this price.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further enquiries.
@Siddy,
One thing I forgot to ask in respect of returns.
Have you ever recorded results to regular Betfair Back returns (at a specific time frame prior to ‘the off’)which of course are still more likely to returns larger returns compared to Industry SP especially regarding longer priced selctions although maybe not as much as Betfair SP?
Hi Jeff
As you know most punters are part time and not withstanding shift work they are mostly occupied with their day jobs and are unable to monitor markets for price movements. The QOTD method was profitable at industry sp, but even more so at the betfair sp. The added advantage to the users of the method is they can place their bets at anytime prior to the race being run, and over 16 months, the betfair sp have out performed the industry sp. Because it does not take the horse form into account I believe that this is the reason that many of our selections go off at big prices and the profits are further enhanced by the betfair sp’s…..and no one’s account can be closed by the bookies who seem hell bent on restricting anyone who wins consistently. As I mentioned earlier my own income ground to a halt after the majority of my accounts were closed or in the case of W.Hill…..max bet nil!!!! For this reason I have been developing methods via the exchanges and QOTD was a good example of how effective …thinking out of the box can be. Happy punting and I wish you continued success
@siddy,
I agree with your point that most punters are part-time and would say that these days the majority of systems advise the use of betting exchanges over the traditional bookmaker and in fact with the technology available regarding mobile phones and laptops, not withstanding illicet use of your employers PC this has probably enabled a lot of people with regular jobs to bet between 9-5. Like yourself my days of dealing with bookmakers have been so restricted as to make it unviable, although I’m still able to get on on-course on my rare visits to the track and I can’t remember the last time I actually graced the threashold of a betting shop.
Regarding QOTD, it’s just acedemic interest really as to how it performs to BFSP, BF back odds at the off and Industry SP. Profitable at all three would certainly mean that you have a system worth looking at. Reliance on BFSP still has me concerned, but if you and others are turning a profit that way, then good luck to you.
best regards.
Hey Jeff and the Mutt,
I had my reservations about using Betfair SP too until I realised that it comes very close to an efficient market. In theory, if the price is widely out of kilter then people operating purely on a value basis will step in and drive the price back to its correct levels. If you lay a horse for a massive amount which causes the projected BFSP to rise to a ridiculous number then people will want to take the other side and back it! It is helped by huge numbers of maths-savvy types and running bots who are quick to jump on any price that will give them an advantage.
I would love to be able to back and lay with huge sums to see exactly what happens but this is not feasible at the current stage. interesting to think about though…
@LF,
I agree, as I said before I’d like to see what happens when a large bet goes in.
Looking at BF’s reply to my query (above) where they have £10 laying liability and £2 backing liability, this gives them a BFSP of 4/1 (5.00). Now just think if you come in before the off with a back bet of £200. This now gives you a return of 00.05, so you’ve adjusted the market down if no one comes in on the laying side so your point of being efficient market stands up.
WAnyone using a backing system for and using BFSP, a value bet could be completely destroyed by a couple of rogue bets like that, especially at the back end of the book.
As I say I don’t use BFSP as I prefer to have some sort of control over returns which is not possible using BFSP, so I’m quite willing to be corrected on this stuff. Interesting non the less.
I know that QOTD is a backing system, but there are quite a few laying systems out there suggesting laying using BFSP. That must be suicidal looking at the published BFSPs and not to be recommended.
..and further to my comment yesterday, Betfair SP is an enigma to me as well. There is a horse in the 3.00 Catterick race that has currently got $110 to back @ BFSP and $5437 to lay. The projected SP is 8.34. I don’t think it runs as a pure pool that only matches the money of the BFSP backers and layers. Betfair could conceivably take the other side of the bet by moving the odds of BFSP as the amount of money on a horse rises so they always get value and on top of this they get commission from the winner. It is certainly an attractive proposition for them!
@LF,
I’m glad I’m not the only one that finds it a bit of a puzzle. What I have noticed is that BFSP is pretty close to their back & lay prices at the off at the shrt end of the book but when you start moving out to the middle and back end that’s when it starts going a bit haywire.
I don’t actually back many long prices these days, but should one come up I’d be tempted to put a couple of hundred on just to see what the ‘real actual’ return was in comparison.
One thing is for certain, laying at BFSP at those reported odds would be suicidal.
cheers.
Looks okay so far, let’s hope we soon get more selections
Whats happenning now admin? All is quiet on the testing front. I make it a habit to click on this site once a day to see any updates and results from system testing.
We are working on it
Have been a bit busy lately but hope to start new reviews in the start of next week 
Marc=> Are you still running this review?