Sep
11
This is a review of Michael’s Place Lay Formula.
Michael´s Place Lay Formula is being heavily promoted at the moment and boasts an 87% strike rate for successful lays in the Betfair place market. Results are updated daily to the sales website which are presently showing a 23 point profit in the last 16 days and even bigger in the graph!
The website is not particularly well written and could do with a marketing makeover, but in some ways this added to the attraction as I would rather invest in a system that works rather than in some fancy website promoting a useless system (Rochdale Road springs to mind!).
The Place Lay Formula is priced at £70 and includes a free subscription service for the first month to obtain qualifying races each day. Thereafter you can subscribe for £15 per month. Please note this service will only provide you with qualifying races - not the horses to lay as the selection is often not made until 30 seconds before the race start. So the system is really only of use to those who can monitor races and live Betfair prices. It is not a “bet and go to work” system.
Having read through the 32 page manual, I definitely got the impression that this system has been well thought out and makes logical and sound sense. The manual is well written and there is no “how to bet with Betfair” fluff in the manual, something I really appreciate - just straight into the system rules from page 1.
There are 8 strict rules to follow which are not difficult and the author demonstrates each rule with examples and Betfair visuals. However, because you will be making your final selection just seconds before the race start, it is important to get to grips with the rules so that you are not constantly referring to the manual whilst trying to get the bet matched. The first selection I identified went on to be a winning bet but I missed it because I was double checking one of the rules and missed the start! I recommend paper trading for the first day or so to make sure you are able to easily apply the rules to each race before you start betting for real .
The author of Place Lay Formula also includes a staking plan to accelerate profits. This is staking 2% of the bank on the first race, 3% on the second race and 4% on the third race. You then revert back to 2% stakes and so on.
Results are posted to the subscription website within a few minutes of the result, so you can check whether you are making the same selection as the system author. Also, I emailed the author with a question and got a quick response and answer, so all in all, I am impressed with Place Lay Formula.
I will test the system for the next few weeks and post results here using the recommended staking plan.
Jon
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10 Sept - Day 1
I have to say I really like this system. It is well thought out and the author is very strict about the system rules. As mentioned he provides a subscription service to advise of qualifying races and if there is a “No Bet” for any race, he says so and explains why. Usually one of the system rules has not been met.
For the purpose of the test, I will use a bank of 1,000 which will mean the 2% stake will be 20 (whatever currency you use) and I will deduct 5% betfair commission from winnings.
Anyway, there was one selection today which was:
Kempton 20.20 Tilsworth Charlie Unplaced 7th Lay bet 4.6 (winning bet)
Profit for today + 19.00
Profit to date + 19.00
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11 Sept - Day 2
No qualifying races today
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12 Sept - Day 3
Two selections today:
Wolverhampton 18.50 Mafaheem Placed 3rd Lay 4.40 (losing bet)
Wolverhampton 19.20 Star Grazer Unplaced 8th Lay 4.20 (winning bet)
Profit for today -64.00
Profit to date -45.00
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13 Sept - Day 4
Another two selections today
Kempton 18.50 Fantasy Crusader Unplaced 10th Lay 3.95 (winning bet)
Kempton 21.20 Chiff Chaff Unplaced 9th Lay 4.6 (winning bet)
Profit for today +47.50
P/L to date + 2.50
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15 Sept - Day 5
No qualifying races today. Just to explain, if the going is good to soft, soft or heavy, no bets are placed.
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16 Sept - Day 6
No qualifying races today (Rule 5)
Whilst it may be a bit frustrating that there are days without a bet, at least adhering strictly to the rules avoids risks with the bank. Rule 5 concerns the betfair price of the favourite a couple of minutes before the race start.
Today, many favourites were well above the maximum permitted by this rule. Let´s hope for a bit of action tomorrow.
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17 Sept - Day 7
Two successful selections today plus three other qualifying races where Rule 5 was not met, so no bet on them.
Yarmouth 15.55 Bahar Shumaal Unplaced 8th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Kempton 21.20 Adage Unplaced 8th Lay 3.8 (winning bet)
Profit for today +57.00
P/L to date +59.50
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18 Sept - Day 8
Six qualifying races but 3 failed the system rules leaving:
Yarmouth 15.40 No Rules Unplaced 5th Lay 4.3 (winning bet)
Great Leighs 18.50 West Lorne Unplaced 4th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Great Leighs 21.20 Azure Mist Placed 3rd Lay 4.6 (losing bet)
Profit for today - 5.50
P/L to date +54.00
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19 Sept - Day 9
Just one qualifier today.
Wolverhampton 18.50 Miss Phoebe Unplaced 4th Lay 4.1 (winning bet)
Profit for today + 28.50
P/L to date + 82.50
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20 Sept - Day 10
Two qualifiers today. On the results website, the system author claims that the choice of Yungaburra was a mistake. Well, I don´t think we can overlook mistakes in a test!
Wolverhampton 20.20 Rudry World Unplaced 9th Lay 4.1 (winning bet)
Wolverhampton 20.50 Yungaburra WON Lay 3.6 (losing bet)
Profit for day - 14.00
P/L to date + 68.50
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22 Sept - Day 11
Just one qualifying selection today:
Kempton 17.00 Gallantry Unplaced 6th Lay 3.80 (winning bet)
Profit for today + 28.50
P/L to date + 97.00
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23 Sept - Day 12
Two qualifiers today, both unplaced. This system is beginning to look profitable and I only hope I have not just given it the kiss of death! To follow is an email sent to the system author by a happy punter today. OK, might be a scam etc but I don´t think so. I get the feeling the author is a straight up guy as he has always answered my emails promptly and doesn´t try to hide anything.
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I have to agree with Dave. This system is “so far so good” and the system rules are very logical and sound.
Two more winning bets today:
Sedgefield 15.10 Zibeline Unplaced Pulled Up Lay 4.30 (winning bet)
Sedgefield 16.10 Chigorin Unplaced 8th Lay 4.30 (winning bet)
Profit for today + 57.00
P/L to date + 154.00
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24 Sept - Day 13
Just one selection today. There was almost another at Kempton but which failed to meet one of the system rules about betfair prices. After the race I checked with the subscription site to see if I had missed a selection and there was this discarded selection shown as a winner (losing bet). I emailed Michael and he agreed with me that it was a no bet race but that as he had decided to “take a chance” and place a personal bet on the horse even though it did not quite qualify for selection, he thought he should include it on his results site.
Well, as you may already know, some system authors will fiddle the results to make their system appear more profitable. Michael, on the other hand, includes a non qualifying bet because he decided to place a personal bet on the horse! That´s what I call being transparent and honest with your customers.
Goodwood 16.55 Celtic Dragon Unplaced 4th Lay 4.50 (winning bet) (Bet 17)
Profit for today + 28.50
P/L to date + 182.50
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25 Sept - Day 14
One selection today. Other qualifying races failed Rule 5 which is to do with betfair prices.
Fontwell 16.10 Irish Whispers Unplaced 10th Lay 4.0 (winning bet) (Bet 18)
Profit for today + 38.00
P/L to date + 220.50
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26 Sept - Day 15
There were nine qualifying races today but just two selections.
Ascot 15.55 Elmaleeha Unplaced 5th Lay 4.5 (winning bet)
Haydock 16.20 Montevetro Unplaced 8th Lay 4.4 (winning bet) (Bet 20)
Profit for today + 47.50
P/L todate + 268.00
So, after 20 bets the stats are: 17 winning bets - an 85% strike rate which is in line with the claims on the website. There was a losing bet a few days ago which I have included even though the system author admitted it should have been a “no bet”. Excluding this bet would result in 17 winning bets from 19 which is a strike rate of 89.5%.
Profits are good at around + 8.9 points based on the average progressive stake of 30 explained in the introduction above.
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27 Sept - Day 16
Two qualifiers today:
Chester 17.35 Monfils Monfils Unplaced 8th Lay 4.1 (winning bet)
Great Leighs 21.20 Re Baralo Placed 2nd Lay 4.4 (losing bet) (Bet 22)
Profit for today - 64.00
P/L todate + 204.00
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29 Sept - Day 17
One selection this afternoon
Bath 14.40 Smirfys Gold Unplaced 7th Lay 4.5 (winning bet) (Bet 23)
Profit for today + 28.50
P/L to date + 232.50
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30 Sept - Day 18
Two qualifiers today
Sedgefield 15.20 Always A Rock Unplaced 5th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Southwell 17.20 Agean Pride Unplaced 10th Lay 4.2 (winning bet) (Bet 25)
Profit for today + 57.00
P/L to date + 289.50
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01 Oct - Day 19
Two qualifiers today
Salisbury 17.10 Moonshine Creek Unplaced 4th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Kempton 19.50 Avening Unplaced 7th Lay 4.5 (winning bet) (Bet 27)
Profit for today + 66.50
P/L to date + 356.00
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02 Oct - Day 20
Three qualifiers today and an excellent day for Michael´s Place Lay Formula! We have now had 16 winning bets from the last 17 selections and the overall strike rate for the test period so far is 86.7%.
Newmarket 16.20 Rowe Park Unplaced 10th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Goodwood 17.40 Sand Cat Unplaced 5th Lay 4.1 (winning bet)
Great Leighs 21.20 Sabre Light Unplaced 7th Lay 4.1 (winning bet) (Bet 30)
Profit for today + 85.50
P/L to date + 441.50
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03 Oct - Day 21
A shame the winning streak ended today but we still ended up in profit.
Lingfield 15.00 Deal Flipper Placed 3rd Lay 4.1 (losing bet)
Newmarket 16.20 Gravitas Unplaced 5th Lay 4.1 (winning bet)
Lingfield 17.20 James Pollard Unplaced 7th Lay 4.0 (winning bet)
Wolverhampton 21.20 Nenso Unplaced 11th Lay 3.8 (winning bet) (Bet 34)
Profit for today + 23.50
P/L to date + 465.00
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04 Oct - Day 22
There were several qualifying races today but unfortunately no qualifying selections.
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06 Oct - Day 23
Two winning selections today:
Pontefract 15.10 Topazes Unplaced 5th Lay 4.2 (winning bet)
Pontefract 15.40 Baddam Unplaced 4th Lay 4.4 (winning bet) (Bet 36)
Profit for today + 66.50
P/L to date + 531.50
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07 Oct - Day 24
No qualifying selections today
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08 Oct - Day 25
Two qualifiers today
Kempton 20.50 Courageous Nature Unplaced 5th Lay 4.1 (winning bet)
Kempton 21.20 Fathsta Unplaced 9th Lay 4.4 (winning bet) (Bet 38)
Profit for today + 47.50
P/L to date + 579.00
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09 Oct - Day 26
No qualifiers today
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10 Oct - Day 27
Four qualifiers today. A fifth horse was posted on the results website but should not have been selected as it failed one of the system rules. Therefore the correct results are:
Lingfield 15.50 Wyatt Earp Unplaced 11th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Lingfield 16.55 Apache Fort Unplaced 6th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Lingfield 17.25 Ivory Lace Placed 2nd Lay 4.3 (losing bet)
Wolverhampton 18.50 Kings Topic Unplaced 11th Lay 4.5 (winning bet) (Bet 42)
Profit for today - 4.00
P/L to date +575.00
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11 Oct - Day 28
Just one qualifier today who unfortunately was placed.
Wolverhampton 21.20 Wisdom Kiss Placed 2nd Lay 4.4 (losing bet) (Bet 43)
Profit for today - 68.00
P/L to date +507.00
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13 Oct - Day 29
Four qualifiers today
Wolverhampton 14.50 Aura of Calm Unplaced 9th Lay 4.4 (winning bet)
Kempton 15.10 Eastern Gift Unplaced 10th Lay 4.5 (winning bet)
Kempton 16.40 Birkside Unplaced 5th Lay 4.1 (winning bet)
Wolverhampton 16.50 Themwerethedays Placed 3rd Lay 4.2 (losing bet) (Bet 47)
Profit for today - 10.50
P/L to date +496.50
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14 Oct - Day 30
No qualifiers today.
The test has run for 30 days and I will now stop the test and post a review of the system.
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14 Oct - Review of Michael´s Place Lay Formula
As we all know, there are racing systems and then there are racing systems, if you follow my drift. Many laying systems boast of high strike rates and long winning streaks. What they forget to mention is that one losing bet will probably wipe out your bank as you will be laying at long odds (Little Acorns excepted!).
From my very first reading of this laying system for the Betfair Place Market, I was impressed.
Very clear rules and although these may seem a bit confusing to start with, once you have got the hang of things, it´s plain sailing. No form study or other analysis required as the system is geared to betfair prices as well as a few other simple rules.
The author posts results almost immediately to the subscription website which is a very useful additional feature of the system. The price of the system includes one month´s free access to the results website. So, you can check you are making the right selections. Also I have found the author to be very approachable and he responded quickly to my various emails, usually within an hour or so.
So, after 30 days the stats look like this:
47 bets
39 winning bets - 83% strike rate
8 losing bets
Ave Betfair lay price 4.26
Net profit 496.50 based on an average stake of 30. This equals a very respectable profit of 26.50 points for the month.
Would I recommend Michael´s Place Lay Formula? Yes most definitely!
Admin, get this into the RECOMMENDED folder pronto!
Cheers
Jon
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Read more about this system and buy it here.
Hi Jon
This new place lay system looks interesting. However, will he really restrict sales to preserve liquidity ?.I’ve been caught out before when the market has been flooded with users and consequently little liquidity available.
Also had a look at Betfair place market today and you would have been struggling to get 200.oo matched unless favourite - even then difficult. I would be interested in your experience of using this system in this aspect.( I see from site he has just made another 20 copies available ).
I’m looking forward to see the results, so far it looks very good
Hi admin,sounds good this.I have to say i’m very much at odds when it comes to place laying it never works for me, but if he can make it work ok, lets see what happens,. Please ask him Tho not to put in his sales pitch you can retire useing this plan, as a Taxi driver i may be tempted.
yours Robert. p.s. you never know
we may be able to.
Obviously it is early days in testing the system. I really don´t know if the author will restrict sales and liquidity is always an issue on the place market.
All I can say is I am impressed with the system rules and method of selection and that the author is very approachable.
Fingers crossed this one is worth the money!
Jon
Following this system since yesterday. It does not seem so easy to judge whether to select a horse or not. I saw Bahar Shumaal drift in 3.55 YARM, but as it was also a backing selection on their homepage so I did not lay. In the 9.20 I checked short before the off, the rules seemed fulfilled but I did not identy a clear drifter so also a no bet for me. But how I said , this was my first day, lets see how it goes over the next fey days.
3.40 YARM, No Rule is my selection, lay at 4.3, lets see whether it fits
Harry
Looks like you have got the general idea as No Rules was a qualifying bet and was unplaced (winning bet).
I will update results for yesterday and today later tonight or tomorrow.
Jon
Hi , if you remember it was me that told you about michaels formula after buying it and i also mentioned i myself run a profitable place laying service, you asked me to send you the details and i did but i not heard from you, it might have gone in the junk box i dont know, however ive just emailed you the details again aswell as 3 systems thats ive written all with years of checkable results that can be checked pretty quickly.
Please check your emails and junk box and get back to me as im deperate for someone to review me thats honest!
Dave
Also regarding michaels place lay formula, its advertised by a guy called steve davidson who has tons of websites and systems and services, i think he promotes them for people (although payments go to his account?) but in response to chas’s question i doubt he will actualy limit numbers as most of the services he promotes always have said limited copies but there always there, and also the numbers dont seem to change even months and months later at all so i think it is indeed a marketing trick, which is unfortunate as this is a very good system and the guy who wrote it seems very honest and willing to help so it would be a shame if steve keeps selling it as liquidity will be non existent
Hi Dave
I actually bought the system from Steve Davidson and from all his other system emails, he always only has a few copies left.
I think it was 19 when I bought the system and then a few days later it was still 19 left!
Liquidity in the betfair place market is always a problem and there seems to be quite a few lay the place systems being sold at the moment.
I agree with you, this is a good system, well thought out and logical. Also I have emailed the author Michael a few times and he always replies, usually within minutes. I don´t know him personally, but the impression I get is that he is straight and I really hope this system takes off for him.
Cheers
Jon
Hi
Am interested in this. Just wondering if you can pick the qualifying races yourself, or whether you need to subscribe to the 15 pounds per month?
Thanks for your help.
Hi Phil
Yes, the system enables you to select qualifying races and the rules are very clear on which race types qualify.
I suppose as you are given a month´s free subscription when you buy the system, it is worth checking that you are selecting the right races and indeed the right horses as results are posted to the subscription website within minutes of the race.
Personally, I wouldn´t pay for the subscription service as finding races is very easy.
Cheers
Jon
Hi,
Does the selection process involve selection of drifters? Also, would it be possible to use a bot to place your bets?
Thanks.
Hi James
I cannot divulge the exact selection methods as that would be unfair to the author but part of the process involves identifying a horse that is drifting a few minutes before the race starts.
I am not sure if a bot could be used as there are several selection rules that I don´t think a bot could manage.
Jon
Hi Jon,
even if you can not divulge the methods can you tell me if this method can be used with the bot “GreyHorseBot”.
I would like to purchase the system but can only make it work with the GreyHorseBot.
This is possible?
Thanks.
SpiderMouse
Hi SpiderMouse
Part of the selection process at about 30 seconds before the start of the race involves checking the betfair price graphs for potential selections and the race favourite.
I cannot see how a bot could do that but if someone out there thinks it is possible, let me know.
Jon
Jon
It is possible to program a bot (from memory GHB can)to constantly check prices so it can identify a drifter. Most things can be done using the better bots but there are a few crucial things that can’t.
The point about Place Lay Formula is that you have to check the betfair graph for the favourite and also the graphs in the win market for any possible selections you might lay in the place market if other criteria is met!
I´m not convinced a bot can do all that.
Cheers
Jon
I also don’t think you can use a bot for this system.
Imperial Lucky was not a valid bet in my opinion, as last race was Aug 7th. Or am I wrong?
I did not get on it and finished yesterday 3-1, overall 16-1 since Sep- 18th.
Harry
Imperial Lucky was originally reported as a selection on the system´s results website but later corrected as a no bet as the author received an email from someone called Harald who pointed out that the horse failed one of the system rules. Was that you?
I have already corrected our results for that day.
Your results look very good although the system website results are slightly different to yours.
Jon
Yes. That was me.
My results are a bit different as I am not able to follow each race due to other commitments. It is pure luck that I did not catch some of the selections that were placed.
I must say that I try to follow the rules strictly and if the system rules give me the slightest chance not to bet, I do not bet.
For example I did not identify a valid bet in saturdays last race which brought another loser.
Instead of that I identified Luna Landing in the 5.25 MUSS, I laid at 3.90 which brought me another winning bet, and my record to 17-1.
Had a bit of time today, so short update of todays activities:
2.50 Aura of Calm, 4.50, Winning Bet
4.40 Birkside, 3.90, Winning bet
Record 19-1
I suppose there was one more qualifier in the 4.50, but did not manage to get on it. Would have been another winning bet.
Hi, just a question about the final review.
Can you explain how you calculated the 26.5 points profit for the month?
Dices
Net profit was 496.50 Average stake was 30
496/30 = 26.50
Oops,
I was trying multiplication instead of division !
Does this system require you to sit in front of the computer up to the race and watch it??
Hi Daniel
Yes it does - it says that in the introduction
Cheers
Fernie
Is anybody still following this system?
I am struggling a bit. From the beginning I had fewer selections than stated on salespage.
But as I hit a good run I didn’t care so much.
But the last two weeks were a bit strange.
I watch the qualifying races 5 minutes before the off, try to find a possible selection, when the race starts I make a short comment on a paper when I found a rule not fulfilled. And I suppose there were at least 5 selections the last few days where I could not find a qualifier, but Michael did. Naturally all winning bets.
I thought to myself that Michael doesn’t take his rules too strictly now and then.
Now yesterday happened exactly the opposite. In the 3.20 I found Imprimis Taqula as clear selection (only Rule 6 was a bit of a boarderline decision). The horse finished second, and surprise…. It was a no bet for Michael.
Bit strange in the moment. This is no offense I only want to share experiences with other users especially with those who are using the messaging service.
My stats so far: 26 winners 6 losers
Harry
I follow the system although not every day. I haven´t found the same issues that you mention. The strike rate seems to be around 80% which matches your experience.
Betting has a way of evening out. You had an incredible run of 19-1 strike rate, so it´s highly probable you will get a few losing bets!
I do think the system rules have to be followed exactly, so if Rule 6 was borderline then it should have been a no bet.
Of course, all systems have bad patches now and then often without any obvious reason. When this happens to me, I ususally stand back and wait for a few days to see if things improve.
I don´t use the messaging service because I don´t think there would be enough time between getting the message from him and getting the bet on.
Harry
I have just checked the results website and noticed that Michael has posted two winning selections where the prices were both 4.7 which is just outside the system rule.
Well, we all know betfair prices can move like crazy a few seconds before the race start but it might be worth us taking this up with him to see what he says.
Two emails are better than one!
The selections were:
22 Oct 8.50 Kempton Anduril 4.7 (win bet)
24 Oct 6.50 Wolverhampton Gap Princess 4.7 (win bet)
What do you think?
Jon
2.20 Et Maintenant, 3.95 next losing bet, I could cry
Ironic as that horse was a Life System selection!
Harry, I suggest you back off Place Lay Formula for a few days and just paper trade until your losing streak ends!
Jon
The problem is not the number of losers I had recently, it is the fact that I constantly miss winners.
I don’t know what happened in the 3.50. I was in front of PC and watched the prices but did not identify Domenico as qualifier.
Then the only race I missed today because I was out of house, was the 5.00…. and naturally another winner.
Becomes ridicolous now, for me was 100% clear in the 8.50 that not all rules fulfilled, Michael shows another winner.
I do not want that anyone gets me wrong. I still think that this system is well thought and absolutely logical. I have confidence in this if rules are followed strictly.
But I have another point to discuss today
3.10 Lingfield: I saw Rule 5 not fulfilled (I took screenshots 3 minutes and 30 seconds before off) and the qualifying selection was between 3.30 3 minutes before off and 3.65 to lay seconds before off. So rule 7 not fulfilled. I ask me when the order at 4.1 was placed.
Once more, this is not a critic, but I don’t know how to handle this. I want to get same results as shown on sales page.
O.k. new month, after having a bad streak recently with 7 winners out of last 14 selections, I try to put all my efforts in analysing the qualifying races and try to make correct decisions.
Lets go
12.30 Ascot, Rule 6 not fulfilled, No bet
Any comments of other users are welcome
I have been using Michael selections for week and I also couldn’t understand why he choses horses out of his own rules.
And he wrote me by yahoo (i am using this service) that his selections by yahoo are something like “special” lay system. So he can makes bets a little bit out of typical rules using his own experiance.
HI GUYS,
DOES ANYONE KNOW THE WEBSITE THAT GIVES PRESENT DAY RESULTS FOR MICHAELS PLACE LAYS SERVICE.
Here it is
http://betleg.com/place-lay-selections-2.htm
anyone still using this system ?
Hi,
I also bought the system and I too noticed that he chooses horses out of his own rules.Tonight’s selection was a no bet. favorite was drifting and all that.it was not a system selection.As peter pointed out maybe michael also uses other laying systems.Why would he include his other system selection in the place lay formula list of bets ?
I tried emailing him.Stone cold silence. Not good!
why are my posts being deleted ?
nothing are deleted but the posts first show up when I have approved them and I don’t sit at the computer all the day
Yes, I am on Michael Place lay tipping service. Michael told me for his betleg bets - he uses not only place lay formula but also his advanced place lay formula as well which he has not disclosed to public yet. So if you have bought his system, then you should look at qualifying races only on betleg site because ur bets and his bets will never match….His Tipping service is more than the place lay formula…and page which I posted in one of my above links is for the same purpose…. rest u can speak to him directly…i find him very responsive….like Jon did….
>Michael told me for his betleg bets - he uses not >only place lay formula but also his advanced place >lay formula as well which he has not disclosed to >public yet.
He should make it clear on his site.As it is folks believe his /winning/losing bets are place lay formula selections. It’s confusing.
Yes of course you find him very responsive.For £50/month he better be.:-)