Jan

7

Dodgy Favourites Review – Test of Dodgy Favourites

Filed Under Not recommended systems | 25 Comments

I intend to offer a full review of DODGY FAVOURITES: the latest offering from the renowned Paul Fowlie, as this is the last system he’s writing for some time. If any of you have ever read a book entitled “Against the Crowd”, written by Alan Potts, you’ll find that this system runs along similar lines.

As most will know, Paul has, like many other system compilers, taken some criticism in the past, but here he has, unlike many others, reported his results at realistic Betfair prices.

In fact, he is uses Grey Horse Bot to place his bets a full 7 minutes before the off. I, personally, prefer to place my bets just before the scheduled race time, but by recording results well before the off make Paul’s reported results realistic.. That means that his profits should also be easy for us all to replicate.

Dodgy Favourites is very straightforward and easy to understand. The selections are easy to find: you just need the Racing Post race cards: either online or in newspaper form.

It is published by Sportsworld Publishing and can be found at their website.

As we are laying favourites: the selections will be at the bottom end of the market, there is a cut off point of 7/1 SP or 8.5 on betfair, but it’s not often you get favourites at those prices.

This is the blurb taken from Sportsworld’s website:

“Paul Fowlie Saves The Best Until Last
Many of you have seen and are making good profits from Paul Fowlie’s systems. With Dodgy Favourites he has saved the best until last. What is more, this is an easy system to sell, the results speak for themselves. This is a safe, easy to use and highly profitable lay method.

What is a Dodgy Favourite?
Probably not what you think. To start with the selections are all Favourites in the Racing Post but I cannot give the game away by explaining everything. I can tell you that with Paul Fowlie’s new system there is a bigger twist than Agatha Christie ever came up with. After reading the method your possible first thought may be, “I’m confused, I should be backing these selections to win, not laying them to lose”, but you would be seriously wrong. The principle Paul is exploiting is one to remember well and one that could save you a fortune in your future win bet selections.

No dangerous lays only Racing Post favourites
Strike rate 77%
No need to watch live racing
Place bets before going to work
Average losing bets less than 7/4
Selections emailed each morning
£8,333 profit at Betfair odds in 259 bets
£32.17 average profit every bet, win or lose
Average of 2 bets each day and £416 profit a week

Low Odds and Low Payouts
As you are aware the advantage of laying quoted favourites are the low odds that you have to pay out if a selection does win it’s race. With this system the average payout is just 2.72 in Betfair decimal odds equal to less than 7/4.”

For the purpose of trial: I’ll assume a bank of £1000 and place lays of £20: to return £19 profit per successful selection after Betfair 5% commission.

I will update the results for Dodgy Favourites at the end of the day, quoting my results to Betfair SP.

I’d like to stress that I am not affiliated to anyone connected with “Dodgy Favourites“, whether that be author, publisher, nor promoters, nor anyone else. Nor am I receiving any form of payment for conducting this trial: I am merely an interested punter looking for a winning system, who would like us all to share success stories!

Chris.

DAY 1: WEDNESDAY 7TH JANUARY 2009

No Bets: Dodgy favourites is a turf only system.

DAY 2: THURSDAY 8TH JANUARY

Still no turf racing: fingers crossed for Kelso’s 0830 inspection tomorrow!

DAY 3: FRIDAY 9TH JANUARY

Still no turf racing: high hopes for Saturday though!

DAY 4: SATURDAY 10TH JANUARY

Good news and bad news: we had turf racing and a selection, but it won it’s race, making a losing start for our trial!

12.50 Ayr: Prince de Beauchene won at 13/8 (2.76 betfair SP): loss of £35.20

Currently 0/1 : Bank = £964.80: P/L = -£35.20

DAY 5: SUNDAY 11TH JANUARY

No Bets

DAY 6: MONDAY 12TH JANUARY

No Bets

DAY 7: TUESDAY 13TH JANUARY

No Bets

DAY 8: WEDNESDAY 14TH JANUARY

No Bets

DAY 9: THURSDAY 15TH JANUARY

No Bets

DAY 10: FRIDAY 16TH JANUARY

At last! A bet! And a successful one too!

12.40 Catterick: OLIMPO was 11th at 3/1(BSP 4.99): profit of £19

Now 1/2. Bank = £983.80. P/L = -£16.20

DAY 11: SATURDAY 17TH JANUARY

1.20 HAYDOCK: SNAP TIE was 3rd 11/10 (BSP 2.18): £19 profit.

2/3: Bank = £1002.80. P/L = +£2.80

DAY 12: SUNDAY 18TH JANUARY

No Bets

DAY 13: MONDAY 19TH JANUARY

No Bets

DAY 14: TUESDAY 20TH JANUARY

2.20 SEDGEFIELD: IT’S BERTIE was 2nd at 100/30 (BSP 4.6): £19 profit.

Now 3/4: Bank = £1021.80: Profit of £21.80

DAY 15: WEDNESDAY 21ST JANUARY

No bets: 3 selections originally, but all at Huntingdon, which was called off!

DAY 16: THURSDAY 22ND JANUARY

2.40 WARWICK: RING THE BOSS won at 10/11 (BSP 1.97): loss of £19.40

Now 3/5. Bank = £1002.40: Profit of £2.40

DAY 17: FRIDAY 23RD JANUARY

No Bets.

DAY 18: SATURDAY 24TH JANUARY

3.45 CHELTENHAM: PUNCHESTOWNS was 2nd at 10/11 (BSP 2.03): £19 profit

Now 4/6: Bank is £1021.40: Profit of £21.40

DAY 19: SUNDAY 25TH JANUARY

No Bets: One selection was due to go at Hexham: Meeting Abandoned!

We’ve had just 6 bets in 19 days due to this terrible weather playing havoc with the racing.

DAY 20: MONDAY 26TH JANUARY

No bets (surprise, surprise!)

DAY 21: TUESDAY 27TH JANUARY

No bets.

DAY 22: WEDNESDAY 28TH JANUARY

3.40 NEWCASTLE: TRISONS STAR fell at 11/4 (BSP 4.2): £19 profit

5/7: Bank = £1040.40: profit of £40.40

DAY 23: THURSDAY 29TH JANUARY

No bets.

DAY 24: FRIDAY 30TH JANUARY

No bets. (Chepstow had one selection, but meeting abandoned)

DAY 25: SATURDAY 31ST JANUARY

1.55 DONCASTER: COPPER BLEU was 2nd at 10/11 (BSP 1.99) : +£19
2.05 SANDOWN: CELESTIAL HALO won at 1/2 (BSP 1.59) : -£11.80
4.20 SANDOWN:  KILLAGHY CASTLE was a faller at 11/2 (BSP 7.4): +£19
2/3 today for a £26.20 profit
Now 7/10: Bank = £1066.60: profit of £66.60
.
DAY 26: SUNDAY 1ST FEBRUARY
No bets.
.
DAY 27: MONDAY 2ND FEBRUARY
No turf racing = No bets.
.
DAY 28: TUESDAY 3RD FEBRUARY
No turf racing = No bets.
.
So, that’s 4 weeks gone already! The weather has decimated the racing fixtures and as a result there has only been 10 selections for this system in 4 weeks. We’ve had 7 successes at a 70% strike rate: Our £1000 bank now stands at £1066.60, which is an increase of £66.60 or 6.66% (still higher than putting it in the bank!)
.
DAY 29: WEDNESDAY 4TH FEBRUARY
No turf racing = No bets.
.
DAY 30: THURSDAY 5TH FEBRUARY
No bets.
.
DAY 31: FRIDAY 6TH FEBRUARY
2.50 BANGOR: PONG PONG SIVOLA won at 1/4 (BSP 1.27): loss of £5.40
Now 7/11. Bank= £1061.20: profit of £61.20.
.
DAY 32: SATURDAY 7TH FEBRUARY
2.50 KEMPTON: DENMAN was 2nd at 8/11 (BSP 1.83): profit of £19
4.20 AYR: NELSON DU RONCERAY won at 2/1 (BSP 3.35): loss of £47
1/2 today for a loss of £28
Now 8/13: Bank = £1033.20: profit of £33.20.
.
DAY 33: SUNDAY 8TH FEB
No bets
.
DAY 34: MONDAY 9TH FEB
No bets.
.
DAY 35: TUESDAY 10TH FEB
No turf racing = no bets.
.
DAY 36: WEDNESDAY 11TH FEB
No turf racing!
.
DAY 37: THURSDAY 12TH FEB
3.55 CHEPSTOW: THE SAWYER was 5th at 7/2 (BSP 4.9): £19 profit
Now 9/14: bank = £1052.20: profit of £52.20
.
DAY 38: FRIDAY 13TH FEB
3.45 SANDOWN: AWESOME GEORGE was 5th at 5/2 (BSP 3.75): £19 profit
Now 10/15. Bank = £1071.20: profit of £71.20
.
DAY 39: SATURDAY 14TH FEB
4.50 WINCANTON: SHAMARI won at 10/11 (BSP 1.89): loss of £17.80
Now 10/16. Bank = £1053.40: profit of £53.40
.
DAY 40: SUNDAY 15TH FEB
2.10 HEREFORD: BLACK JACARI was 4th at 7/4 (BSP 2.89): profit of £19
Now 11/17. Bank = £1072.40: profit of £72.40
.
DAY 41: MONDAY 16TH FEB
3.25 CARLISLE: LE ROI ROUGE won at 2/1 (BSP 3.30): loss of £46
Now 11/18. Bank = £1026.40: profit = £26.40
.
DAY 42: TUESDAY 17TH FEB
2.50 TAUNTON: RONALDO DES MOTTES was 2nd at 8/13 (BSP 1.70): profit of £19
Now 12/19. Bank = £1045.40: profit of £45.40
.
DAY 43: WEDNESDAY 18TH FEB
2.25 LUDLOW: BASEBALL TED was 4th at 11/8fav (BSP 2.82): £19 profit
3.35 LUDLOW: WORKING TITLE was 8th at 11/4fav (BSP 3.82): £19 profit
2/2 today makes 14/21. Current profit = £83.40
.
DAY 44: THURSDAY 19TH FEB
5.00 HUNTINGDON: TAKE THE STAND was 7th at 15/2 (BSP 9.0)
Unfortunately, it went off half a point too high to count as a selection, but those of us/you who laid it earlier in the day made a profit on it.
.
DAY 45: FRIDAY 20TH FEB
2.00 MUSSELBURGH: RED MOLONEY won at 2/5 (BSP 1.43): loss of £8.60
2.10 SANDOWN: IHEARASYMPHONY was pulled up at 5/1 (BSP 6.63) +£19
3.10 MUSSELBURGH: DIVERS was 2nd at 8/11 (BSP 1.9): +£19
3.45 MUSSELBURGH: BRAVE REBELLION won at 5/1 (BSP 7.59): loss of £131.80
3.45 MUSSELBURGH: NOIR ET VERT was 3rd at 2/1 (BSP 3.16) :+£20 (no commission: losing race)
Unlucky today: Our Jasper would have been the easy winner of the 3.45 but he fell and these things happen!
3/5 today for a loss of £82.40
Now 17/26 for £1.00 total profit.
.
DAY 46: SATURDAY 21ST FEB:
1.50 NEWCASTLE: DALDINI WON at 13/2 (BSP 8.0) loss of £140
4.35 NEWCASTLE: SKIPPERS BRIG WON AT 10/11: loss of  £18.18
0/2 today for a loss of £158.18.
Now 17/28, bank  = £842.82 : a loss of £157.18 ( and it’s going to be a long way back.)
.
DAY 47 SUNDAY 22ND FEB:
2.40 FONTWELL: KICKS FOR FREE was 3rd at 1/4 (BSP 1.29): profit of £19
Now 18/29. Bank = £861.02: loss of £138.98
.
DAY 48: MONDAY 23RD FEB
No bets.
.
DAY 49: TUESDAY 24TH FEB
4.10 CATTERICK: CHIEF DAN GEORGE won at 11/10 (BSP 2.18): loss of £23.60
4.50 LEICESTER: THEDREAMSTILLALIVE was 7th at 7/2 (BSP 4.57): profit of £19
Now 19/31 (61.29%). Bank = £856.42: loss of £143.58
.
DAY 50: WEDNESDAY 25TH FEB
4.10 FOLKESTONE: IWILLREMEMBERYOU was 5th at 8/1 (BSP 10.98)
Unfortunately the cut-off is an SP of 7/1, so this one won’t count.
.
DAY 51: THURSDAY 26TH FEB
3.30 TAUNTON: GULLIBLE GEORGE  was 2nd at 8/11 (BSP 1.95): +£19
3.50 LUDLOW: PRETTY STAR was 2nd at 11/2 (BSP 7.04): +£19
2/2 today makes 21/33 (63.64%). Bank = £894.42: loss of £105.58
.
DAY 52 FRIDAY 27TH FEB
1.50 FAKENHAM: COOL ROXY won at 9/4 (BSP 3.45): loss of £49
4.00 FAKENHAM: KINGHAM was 3rd at 10/11: profit of £19
4.45 DONCASTER: FAIRYLAND won at 9/4 (BSP 3.65): loss of £53
1/3 today for a loss of £83
Now 22/36 (61.11%): Bank is now £811.42: a loss of £188.58
.
DAY 53 SATURDAY 28TH FEB
3.20 KEMPTON: HELL’S BOY was 3rd at 8/13 (BSP 1.69): +£19
3.25 DONCASTER: ALDERBURN was 7th at 4/1 (BSP 5.1): +£19
3.35 KELSO: CLOUDY LANE fell at 4/5 (BSP 1.87): +£19
4.45 KELSO: REFLECTED GLORY unseated rider at 7/2 (BSP5.5): +£19
4/4 today for £76 profit.
Now 26/40 (65%). Bank = £887.42: a loss of £112.58.
.
DAY 54: SUNDAY 1ST MARCH
2.40 HUNTINGDON: MOUNT HELICON was 2nd at 9/4 (BSP 3.60): +£19
Now 27/41 (65.85%). Bank = £906.42: a loss of £93.58.
.
DAY 55: MONDAY 2ND MARCH
No bets
.
DAY 56: TUESDAY 3RD MARCH
No bets.
.
DAY 57: WEDNESDAY 4TH MARCH
2.50 CATTERICK: DESCRIPTION won at 7/4 (BSP 2.94): loss of £38.80
Now 27/42 (64.29%) Bank = £867.62: a current loss of  £132.38
.
DAY 58: THURSDAY 5TH MARCH
3.55 LINGFIELD: LAUSTRA BAD was 4th at 11.4 (BSP 4.2): profit of £19
Now 28/43 (65.12%) Bank = £886.62: current P/L = -£113.38.
.
DAY 59: FRIDAY 6TH MARCH
2.30 LEICESTER: OSCATELLO won at 1/9 (BSP 1.14): loss of £2.80
3.40 LEICESTER: COOLEFIND won at 6/1 (BSP 8.8): loss of £156
5.15 AYR: RED SCALLY won at 100/30 (BSP 4.91): loss of £78.20
0/3 today for a loss of £237.00
Now 28/46 (60.87%) Bank = £649.62: a current loss of £350.38.
.
DAY 60: SATURDAY 7TH MARCH
No bets.
.
DAY 61: SUNDAY 8TH MARCH
No bets
.
DAY 62: MONDAY 9TH MARCH
3.00 PLUMPTON: EL DANCER won at 2/11 (BSP 1.19): loss of £3.80
Now 28/47 (59.57%). Bank = £645.82. P/L = -£354.18
.
DAY 63: TUESDAY 10TH MARCH
No bets
.
DAY 64 : WEDNESDAY 11TH MARCH
2.20 HUNTINGDON: CALL ME A LEGEND won at 5/6 (BSP 1.95): loss of £19.
Now 28/48 (58.33%) Bank = £626.82. P/L = -£373.18
.
DAY 65: THURSDAY 12TH MARCH

No bet: SP too high at 15/2.

DAY 66: FRIDAY 13TH MARCH

2.55 FAKENHAM: VALLEY RIDE won at 4/11 (BSP (1.43): loss of £8.60

Now 28/49 (57.14%) Bank = £618.22. P/L = -£381.78

DAY 67: SATURDAY 14TH MARCH

3.10 UTTOXETER: BADGERLAW was 5th at 8/1 (BSP 12.92): +£19

Now 29/50 (58.0%) Bank = £637.22. P/L = -£362.78

DAY 68: SUNDAY 15TH MARCH

2.55 FONTWELL: GREENBRIDGE won at 7/4 (BSP 2.78): loss of £35.60

3.35 CARLISLE: MINSTER ABBI was 3rd at 3/1 (BSP 4.30): +£19

1/2 today for a loss of £16.60

Now 30/52 (57.69%) Bank = £620.62. P/L = -£379.38

DAY 69: MONDAY 16TH MARCH

3.20 TAUNTON: LEADING CONTENDER won at 1/4 (BSP 1.29): loss of £5.80

Now 30/53 (56.60%) Bank = £614.82. P/L = -£385.18

This is going nowhere fast.

DAY 70: TUESDAY 17TH MARCH

5.20 KEMPTON: NIPPY DES MOTTES was 4th at 13/2 (BSP 8.97): +£19

Now 31/54 (57.4%) Bank = £633.82 P/L = -£366.18

That’s the end of the 10th week now.

54 bets placed: 31 successful lays at a strike rate of 57.4%

We have lost 36.62% of our starting bank so far: we need 20 consecutive successes to return to profit. This would increase the strike rate to 68.9% (still far below expected).

ADMIN: We are going to put dodgy favourites in the NOT RECOMMENDED folder. It will simply take far too long time to win back the lost amount. It is a decent system but simply not good enough for us to recommend it.

Comments

25 Responses to “Dodgy Favourites Review – Test of Dodgy Favourites”

  1. Robert on January 7th, 2009 4:12 pm

    Hi Chris,i wonder a bit myself about P/F seems
    some like him some dont.I am tempted a bit but
    i allso want to know more about winners to losers
    the good thing about P/F is i suppose its laying
    Favs, winners to losers is much higher, the strike
    rates are much the same w/l just higher.You could send me an email if you like telling me more about
    him i would be grateful.
    yours Robert.
    robertday13@btinternet.com

  2. Jon on January 7th, 2009 7:14 pm

    Robert

    The one thing that scares the **** out of me about Winners to Losers is the staking plan they show on their results page in order to get to the 75k profits etc. I think there were a number of occasions where they layed over 1,000 quid and lost around 7,000 on the bet! Also there are lots of stakes of 1,000 or more and I doubt there would be enough liquidity on Betfair.

    The only laying systems worth the money are those that work to level stakes and/or bet on low liabilities.

    I’ve been monitoring Dodgy Favs for a couple of months and have the system rules. Not convinced but will be very interested to see how it goes. The logic behind the system makes sense but…..

    Jon

  3. maRin on January 15th, 2009 1:35 pm

    MadMax wasn’t a selection yesterday because of no of career runs!

    Kind regards

    Markus

  4. Joe Sixpack on January 15th, 2009 1:53 pm

    Indeed,… besides that i guess that particular horse wouldnt have been the best selection for ANY laying System :)

  5. Robert on January 17th, 2009 6:04 pm

    I have decided to stick to FF and two other
    services i use having a ball of a time.
    The other two are Paul from the layservice@tiscali
    .co and http://www.syndicate100.eu cant fault them.
    yours
    Robert.

  6. Supriya Roy on January 18th, 2009 1:49 pm

    This system is excellent, have been following it since late 2008. Less races when it’s frosty in Dec/Jan but that’s normal.

  7. ricky on January 18th, 2009 4:39 pm

    was snap tie a selection on dodgy favs yesterday,my racing post website,semmed to say the going was soft,so i didnt do it,i think paul is counting it as a selection,which is fair enough,i suppose the rule about the going is always going to cause slight problems,
    best wishes ricky

  8. chris on January 18th, 2009 11:52 pm

    Yes, Snap Tie was a selection.
    I’ve been away for the weekend, so I’m a bit behind on my reviews.

    Both this systems and Winners To Losers will be updated later tonight!

  9. JohnMalko on January 27th, 2009 1:47 pm

    And again no selection today…

  10. Joe Sixpack on February 6th, 2009 6:36 pm

    Well that race with Ping Pong Sivola was realy a joke with only 3 Runners left in it…… i thought about leaving the Selection alone,….. if i only had :)

  11. chris on February 6th, 2009 7:40 pm

    It was always worth taking on at 1/4, in my opinion.
    It could have fallen, run out of steam, or even been brought down by one of the other two. You never know.

    Plus it’s a minimal risk.

  12. Joe Sixpack on February 6th, 2009 8:10 pm

    I personaly was hopeing for a decent neck breaking fall,…. :) , no luck though….

  13. admin on February 12th, 2009 5:00 pm

    winner2losers

  14. chris on February 13th, 2009 9:15 am

    Hi Robert,

    There’s not a great deal I can tell you about Paul Fowlie. I’ve never met the guy personally, so I can only judge him on what I see and on my personal experiences of him. He frequents a couple of other web forums and is always willing to answer questions. He always responds to my emails promptly, if I ever have any queries. He openly advertises which days he will be at the racetracks and there’s an open invitation to system subscribers to join him for a drink. So, he seems OK to me. That, of course, doesn’t mean his systems are any good: that’s why we test them!

    I use Paul’s “Lay the Place” and “Dodgy Favourites” with my own money, though, if that’s any help.

  15. Joe Sixpack on February 13th, 2009 10:59 am

    Yep decent lad that Mr. Fowlie !

  16. Joe Sixpack on February 20th, 2009 12:25 pm

    Take the stand seems to be over the Odds limit ???

  17. Joe Sixpack on February 22nd, 2009 4:54 pm

    The funny thing is i still think this System is Excellent dispite the recent big loss, because it is based on identifying value bets.

    What i will start to do when i have a bit of time is refining the Selection process with some of my own dirty tricks :) ….. over the past 1 1/2 months there where several loosing selections over with i had strong doubts if a lay would be the best course of action,…. some of those horses just had too big a chance to win (sometimes because of the field size sometimes because of other factors),……

  18. brummie on February 26th, 2009 4:44 am

    THINK IWILLREMEMBERYOU,FELL OUTSIDE THE PRICE RANGE,SO WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN A SELECTION

  19. Joe Sixpack on February 26th, 2009 1:39 pm

    Hmm,…. i have Ultimate Limit as a Selection here in the B-O-D, 16.50 on 25.02.2009 ?? And it lost for a bit of Profit.

  20. chris on February 26th, 2009 8:58 pm

    Joe,

    Ultimate Limit stepped up in class yesterday, therefore not a selection.

  21. Joe Sixpack on February 26th, 2009 10:52 pm

    Maybe i got that one wrong,…… but i aint complaining :)

  22. xbs on March 15th, 2009 5:07 am

    DF is a piece of … Well, you know that. Not worth trying. Alright, just my two cents.

  23. Joe Sixpack on March 15th, 2009 5:18 pm

    Out of the Box it looks rather poor thus far,….. i agree

  24. brummie on March 16th, 2009 2:23 am

    DONT THINK QADAR WAS A SELECTION YESTERDAY AS THE SYSTEM DOSENT OPERATE ON THE A/W,
    BEST WISHES BRUMMIE

  25. chris on March 17th, 2009 2:21 am

    You are quite right Brummie.
    What happened was that Badgerlaw and Qadar were both lays on another system I’m following and when I came here to log Badgerlaw’s result, I ended up adding Qadar too!
    I’ve amended it now, and thanks for pointing it out.
    I’ll be wrapping this one up soon, I think!

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